Ultimate Mid-Life Crisis Brand Hits the Skids

After decades of selling the boy-toy of choice for straight men of a certain age (and income), how is Harley-Davidson going to rediscover itself? A road trip to India, apparently.

A Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal story this week lays out the rationale — growing middle and upper classes, aspiration for classic American luxury brands. Apparently it took the Great Recession for Harley to figure out what the rest of the world has known about and been chasing for years — new money in BRIC.

When the “Easy Rider” image of Harley outsider rebel chic has been supplanted by the doughy, affluent sadness of “Wild Hogs,” something is terribly, terribly wrong.

As Rick Barrett recently noted in his Harley enthusiast blog for the JS:

Harley-Davidson Inc. motorcycle sales are rumbling along in low gear as the riding season winds down across much of the country and consumers continue to be cautious in their spending.

From October through early November, sales of new Harleys were down 25% to 30% from a year ago, according to a motorcycle dealership survey released Monday by Robert W. Baird & Co.

Used bike sales fell just 7%, as they were less affected by the recession, the report notes.

Inventories of new Harleys increased even as the motorcycle company slashed production. The average U.S. Harley-Davidson dealership had 54 bikes in September, up from 38 a year earlier, the Baird report says.

“Most dealers are disappointed with low levels of marketing/advertising and a lack of Harley promotions,” Baird analyst Craig Kennison wrote in his analysis of the survey.

Still, the Baird report anticipates a turnaround for the company in 2011. Based on what? Harley’s aging demographic in its core U.S. market? Lower incomes and lower marginal propensity to consume? The Baird report apparently does not say. And we all know how accurate and reliable the analysis of sell-side investment firms has been over the past several years.

 

 

 

Why Windows 7 Will Not Drive a Monster PC Hardware Refresh Cycle

Why do conventional wisdom and analyst palaver assert as a matter of metaphysical certitude that the launch of Windows 7 will rapidly drive a robust PC refresh cycle?

Dell, in its attempt to move past its startlingly poor quarterly results announced last week, once again pointed to this theoretical groundswell of enterprise spending as the engine for its increasingly more theoretical turnaround. But even as Microsoft touts the record-setting sales pace of Windows 7, new PCs don’t appear to be riding those coattails.

Two reasons why:

• No new hardware required: Unlike previous Microsoft OS platforms, Windows 7 does not require upgraded hardware to run as speced.
• Learning to love lean and mean IT: The corporate recovery, as anemic as it is, is being driven by cost reductions and tighter controls on expenditures. Now that companies are much used to doing more with less — and getting good at it – CTOs and COOs will likely wring more value out of their current systems and upgrade more slowly and cautiously than they have in the past.
• For consumers, PC deals matter more than the OS: While it has made sense to wait for Windows 7 to arrive before buying a new PC, Windows 7 has not been a driver. Cheap netbooks and low-cost laptops are the stars of the consumer space — which has been driving the computer industry recovery – and Windows 7 just comes with it.

Shrugs Greet the Tech World’s Worst-Kept Secret

To no one’s surprise, Dell finally “officially” announced it plans to introduce an Android-based smartphone for the China and Brazil markets. No specs, just fulsome prose extolling the Dell’s (yet to be fully articulated) grand strategy for global growth through small devices. So the news here is the ongoing lack of news.

The Mini 3 will arrive late to the party, apparently a decent but unexceptional device, firmly nestled in the middle of a crowded field. As Saul Hansell aptly described it in the New York Times:

“What Dell is doing is not starting by fighting head-to-head with Samsung, HTC, Motorola (not to mention Apple and Research in Motion) in the United States. Rather it debuting its products in two big developing markets where, presumably, its core strength in delivering generic technology cheaply will be valued.”

“Core strength in delivering generic technology cheaply…” Ouch. For a company that is spending gobs of time and money on hipper-than-thou art works, nail colors and MLB logos to tart up it’s lids, I expect that’s not quite the marketing hook they were going for.

The one publicity upside in this announcement  is for Google and Android, now arguably a bigger momenum OS story than Windows 7.

Meanwhile, Apple hums along, focused on surprising and delighting customers on its own terms.

Dell’s Adamo is So Thin, So Stylish…So What?

With the twin arrivals of the Dell Adamo XPS and Windows 7, there’s a new wave of Fox News-esque ginned up drama about the arms race against Apple’s Mac Book Air for the title of world’s best ultrathin laptop.

Apart from tech bloggers and gadget foamers, who cares? Has anyone actually seen any of these exotic creatures outside a test lab? How many have been sold in this category?

And how is it a competition when Apple hasn’t bothered to do a follow-up to the original? They made their design statement and  have moved on to innovate in categories where people actually buy lots of stuff. Meanwhile, Dell’s R&D resources are mired in a competition to sell a few hundred units of executive desk candy.

Even among tech bloggers who are excitedly pumping out reviews pitting the Dell Adamo XPS vs. the Mac Book Air, the net effect is a commentary on fantasy objects rather than something they would/could actually buy/use outside their test labs. Sort of like discussing who’s the more powerful superhero, Superman or The Sentry: whoever wins, what does it matter in the real world?

 

Who Run Bartertown?: Lessons for Gay Activists from “Thunderdome”

The movie Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome has been a longtime GLBT favorite, but mostly for its S&M fashions and drag dominatrix iconography.

However, it also offers some important lessons for political activism in the reign of Obama the Timid and the Blue (Lap)Dog Democrats.

1. “Is it Tomorrow-morrow Land? No. Bartertown.” — If it is not clear by now, the Obama Administration is not going to usher in some Golden Age of equal rights for gays et al. In fact, now more than ever, American national politics is a post-apocalyptic nightmare (the apocalypse, of course, being the Bush Administration) wherein the naked exchange of money and votes is the true and only basis of social order.
2. “Embargo on! Main valve off!” — Like MasterBlaster’s demonstration for Auntie Entity, the despot and his/her enablers must be reminded periodically that even the freaks shoveling pig shit — in this case, a metaphor for gay money, votes and party activism –  can disrupt the system. Hoist with her own petard, as it were, Auntie avers, “MasterBlaster runs Bartertown.”
3. “Bust a deal, face the wheel” – In order to maintain the integrity of a social system, there must be significant consequence if promises are broken. Democratic politicians and black-tie enablers like HRC must be held accountable for not fulfilling their commitments. And the consequences should be genuinely punishing. Cut off their money. Don’t give them a platform for rhapshodizing empty promises (e.g. don’t invite non-performers to headline/speak). Banish the Democrats to the desert wearing a donkey’s head.
4. “Justice is only a roll of the dice. . .a flip of the coin, a turn of the wheel.” — Gay marriage proponents in California and Maine should take heart. Even after Max is betrayed and driven out of Bartertown, presumably to his death, he finds a tribe of young idealists who help him return and upend the corrupt and corrupting capitalist dystopia. The fight for justice can be arbitrary, but regardless of the outcome, it can be reversed.

It’s clear now that there never was a real window of opportunity for equal rights for GLBT Americans, only a trompe l’oeil version, and “gay leaders” have been foolishly paying the Democrats for the privilege of banging their own heads against that idyllic brick wall.

No more money. No more votes. No more rallies. No more canvassers and field workers. Just say NO — Make that, just say HELL NO — to anything to do with Democratic politics until voting records match rhetoric. Only then, in the immortal words of Master, “Lift embargo.”

Waifs Wanted: Eileen Fisher’s Mid-Life Crisis Puts Her Cross-Ways With Rosie

Most businesses would love a lucrative niche. But apparently fashion designer Eileen Fisher is tired of her brand’s strong following among older and plus-size women. Tired enough to tick off one of her most vocal and visible unpaid spokespeople: Rosie O’Donnell.

Poor Ms. Fisher, she was tired of not being thought of as a cool, hip designer. Put another way, she’s ashamed of the dowdies willing to shell out major ducats for flowy, forgiving silhouettes who built her business.

Fisher told the New York Times:

“About a year ago I was feeling sad,” said Ms. Fisher, 58, as she paced her light-filled showroom on lower Fifth Avenue. “I thought we’re so much cooler than we appear. We have made the clothes look hipper, but nobody knew that.”

Apparently Fisher sees no need to reassure her longtime “mature” clientele while making her brands relevant to younger women, and told O’Donnell as much. According to an NBC New York report:

O’Donnell has long declared her love for Fisher’s clothing. So when she found out that the designer was actually in the audience of a recent performance of the play she’s been performing in, “Love, Loss, and What I Wore” (during which one of the actors actually declares, “When you start wearing Eileen Fisher, you might as well say I give up”), she say she leapt at the chance to gush about Fisher’s impact on her life.

On her Sirius XM radio show, Rosie claimed she told Fisher about how much stress she’d felt over trying to find clothing that flattered her figure, saying: “On behalf of every plus-sized woman in the world, I just want to thank you.” But then, Rosie claims, Fisher went on the defensive, saying that the store didn’t actually sell plus sizes, and that overall an association with plus-size clothing was “just not the image that we’re going for.”

As Rosie put it, “It was like someone stabbed me in the heart.” And in the ultimate “oh snap” move, she declared she’d be “wearing Donna Karan from now on.”

As we all know, fashionistas are among the most conservative and brand-loyal customers out there, and they deplore rumor and gossip. Once they find a designer, they’re loyal for life, so Fisher has nothing to worry about.*

*Denotes sarcasm.

Forget Childhood Obesity and Diabetes, Fight H1N1 with Sugary Cereals

Two or three decades ago Saturday Night Live aired one of its trademark commerial parodies, this one taking aim at the empty calories of popular breakfast cereals. I can’t remember the spoof brend’s name, but the punch line sticks with me: “Just add fruit and milk and it has all the nutrition of fruit and milk.”

Apparently nothing has changed in the intervening time.

After juicing up cereals like Cocoa Krispies with added vitamins and “antioxidants,” Kellogg’s loudly declares on the cereal box front “Now Helps Support Your Child’s IMMUNITY.” The following quote from USA Today’s story sums it up:

“Of all claims on cereal boxes, this one belongs in the hall of fame,” says Kelly Brownell, director of Yale University’s Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity. “By their logic, you can spray vitamins on a pile of leaves, and it will boost immunity.”

And so will drinking water, sleep, exercise — healthy living!

So what is the Kellogg’s brand saying here? Any gimmick in a storm? Damn the science, full speed ahead? Let’s take this virus viral?

For more news and information on America’s breakfast default setting, check out The Boxtop.

Can’t Unring the Bell — and That’s What Republicans Are Counting On

An out-of-bounds, red-meat statement, followed by a slow walkback — or not. That seems to be the preferred tactic of Republican backbenchers in what has clearly become open season for publicity-seeking conservatives. In doing so, they’re able to build the appearance of a legislative record and store up headlines and soundbites for their re-election campaign.

Following in the now famous/infamous (but $$$ fundraising either way) footsteps of presidential heckler Rep. Joe Wilson, North Carolina Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx grabbed the spotlight yesterday for saying:

“I believe the greatest fear that we all should have to our freedom comes from this room – this very room – and what may happen later this week in terms of a tax increase bill masquerading as a health care bill.

“I believe we have more to fear from the potential of that bill passing than we do from any terrorist right now in any country.”

Cue expressions of outrage from the Democratic National Committee Scream Machine, then theatrical indifference from Republican leadership and…Mission Accomplished!

From nobody to pseudo-somebody in a single news cycle!

Even if she does come out with some anemic statement of regret — never apology — the points have been scored with the zealots in the base, who will remember her “independence” and “courage” come election time (and if they don’t, her ads and direct mail will remind them).

 

Acer’s Low-Key Marketing Magic

You don’t see splashy ad campaigns from Acer, and that might explain how it can be making such a rapid ascent in consumer PC sales, and why it has the best chance of prospering in the low-margin end of the market. Having surged past Dell in global units last quarter, and with its eyes now fixed on #1 HP, it quietly markets decent products at an attractive price and lets WOM do the rest.

While Apple, Dell and RIM throw millions at advertising, Acer sticks to the basics and eschews high-profile, high-cost stunts that might grab a few headlines but can’t seem to move the sales needle. Instead, it prefers to let the momentum of tech media buzz do the work. Low-key disclosures drive positive buzz for upcoming products by providing more info on bread-and-butter content — specs and unofficial pricing – than competitors divulge. Amp that up with marketplace momentum and you have a little WOM engine that could.

Without the high marketing expenses, Acer can afford to keep downward pressure on pricing not only for netbooks, but also for tablets, smartphones and the rest of Acer’s aggressive product pipeline. So while other PC makers try to claw back margins on higher-spec notebooks, don’t be surprised if Acer’s approach disrupts that strategy as well.

Kodak Moments Without Kodak Products?

Despite the death of film-and-chemical imaging, the Kodak brand name remains strong . For years the company has tried to figure out what they can sell instead of film and instant cameras. The current push on cut-rate inkjet printers and cartridges doesn’t seem to be gaining traction, but is that a surprise when a premium photographic imaging company abruptly gears down into bargain brand mode?

But to Kodak’s credit, there seems to be no stinting on marketing programs to sustain and nourish the original tenets of the master brand — apparently so those scrapbooker pocketbooks will spring open once a viable product/service strategy emerges.

Taxi reports that Kodak has a new integrated marketing campaign called “It’s Time to Smile,” configured around a ”trend” called “BrightSiding,” described as creating moments that bring people together and make them smile) [Note to Faith Popcorn: Please confirm whether this is an actually trend or just Kodak's WOM gimmick]. I wonder if this summer’s teabaggers and town hall criers are BrightSiders, as they made a lot of folks smile.

Anyhoo…

According to Taxi, Kodak has announced three new social media applications to build momentum for a Q4 TV and online ad campaign (I don’t have the time/inclination to hunt them down, and Taxi didn’t include links, so I’ll just say that to the best of my knowledge they are pending):

1.  
   1. Kodak Konga Line: This new Facebook application allows users to create community photo albums surrounding an event or theme. Invite friends to share their images and watch the Konga line grow.
   2. Kodak Smile Meter:Kodak’s new Facebook application invites users to send custom smile messages to brighten a friend’s day. The application maintains a running message total—the Smile Meter.
   3. Kodak Smile Maker: A new free iPhone application which lets users paste unique smiles over their favorite photos, then share with family and friends.

Kodak takes a different approach with the Hispanic market, teaming with Yahoo en Español on “Muestra Tu Herencia” (Show Your Heritage) which is intended to encourage Hispanic consumers to share photos online that display their heritage. Kodak created an online mosaic of the images and for each one uploaded, donated to the Hispanic College Fund.

It’s an audacious approach, really. Marketing an image rather than imaging products. But what else can they do?